Tuesday, February 8

NFL Picks Equal Coin Toss

Early on in the season, I gave up posting my NFL picks on this site because I figured it'd be pretty boring to most people.  That doesn't mean, though, that I stopped trying to pick which teams would win each week.  I submitted my picks each week to The Weekly NFL Picks Page.  In my opinion, it's the best free pick'em site around.

Rather than a straight-ahead "pick who you think will win the game" approach, The Weekly NFL Picks Page prefers having people pick against the spread (for instance, in the SuperBowl, the spread was the Patriots by 6 1/2.  So, to pick the Patriots correctly, they'd have to score 7 points more than the Eagles.  They didn't, so even though the Patriots won the game, the people who picked the Pats in this game would have lost).  This makes it much more difficult to pick correctly.

My record for the season:  129-122 which is 51.4%.  I think I was somewhere in the 49% last year (and my career record at the site is 48.8%).  So, basically,  I am about as successful using my method (which is mostly gut-feeling mixed with my limited knowledge of the teams) as I would be flipping a coin.  This would indicate that the spread that the odds-makers come up with for each game are pretty accurate.

For the record, the winner of the season on The Weekly NFL Picks Page had a winning percentage of 58.4.

1 comment:

Wayne said...

Those odd-makers in Vegas are real good at their job. As you no doubt are aware, it is the "juice" that generates revenue. That is why Vegas loves teasers like a coin toss. They know it is a 50-50 proposition, as is also the payout. But they collect "juice" on the losers (percentages indicate 50% of betters on a coin toss, and ideally the same on all bets like over-under and points scored by first quarter, etc). All which can add up.