Thursday, April 22

Mr. Guess-up

Last NFL season, in the only pick'em pool I was involved with, I think I got just under 50 percent of my picks correct. Of course, that was picking against the spread, which, theoretically, is supposed to even out your odds of winning. So, I blame that poor showing on the smart minds of Las Vegas bookies.

In the first round of these NHL playoffs, I believe I picked 3 out of the 8 teams that advanced to the second round. The other 5 I got wrong. These picks had nothing to do with a spread. These were the teams I thought would advance, and therefore one might assume I would do better than "just under 50 percent". 3 out of 5 right is what I got. For this I'll blame recent parity in the NHL. That, and Patrick Lalime.

In my recent American Idol pickmanship here, on this blog, I don't believe I've yet correctly identified the contestent who will be evicted on any particular night. This week I even failed to identify any of the 'bottom three'. For this, I blame the crazy American public for using a completely different set of parameters in their determination of who deserves to be removed from the competition. I use a complicated formula that takes in such factors as "vocal quality" "star potential" and "talent". America, I believe uses the following single factor in their determinations: "Cuteness"

And, now, to Survivor. I don't do too well in guessing who gets booted each week. For this, I blame clever editing from the producers who are determined to outwit, outlast and out-trick the viewing audience. Last week, I did correctly state that Kathy's fire would definetly be snuffed out. However, I also correctly stated that the sun would rise the next day, too. Both brave predictions of approximately the same risk.

Tonight, I am firmly stating that Shii-Ann (which is Mandarin for "useless tit") will be removed from the game. I was going to add "unless she wins immunity". But she won't win immunity. Tonight, Useless-Tit gets the boot. Ga-ran-teed! (which is Canadian for "I also picked Ottawa"). I am not even going to make a safety pick, so confident am I in this pick. However, if I was to make a safety pick, it'd be Alicia.

I will, however, add an addendum that would affect my Useless-Tit pick. The first time that Bahstan Rahb doesn't win immunity, he will be voted out. I don't believe that will happen tonight.


Matt said...

I picked Bill to win The Apprentice pretty early on. Score.
However... I had picked Lex to win Survivor. I can't be held accountable for his losing his mind, can I? (did you see the Travis Bickle haircut last week? Get off the Island, people...)
As for American Idol, last night was a surprise, though I hadn't seen much of the performance show. This program is starting to lose it a bit for me... I mean, sure Barry can write the songs... but a whole night of his music? However, my prediction is that George will win. Is he the best? No. But he's the one who best mixes personality and talent.

Nils Ling said...

With the benefit of hindsight, I can giggle at your Survivor Ironclad Guarantees tonight, but the truth is, I'd have said pretty much the same thing.
I see our problem, though: we keep expecting rational, intelligent thought from these people and they just don't seem to be swinging from the uppermost branches of the intellectual tree.
What a golden opportunity Rupert, Jenna, and Big Tom had to ensure that they ended up being in the final three. Pick Rob off tonight (Shii Ann would have joined up with them in a heartbeat). Dispose of Ambah next (again, with Shii Ann pitching in). Bye Alicia. S'long, Shii Ann, thanks for the help. Bingo. Three left, all feeling relatively capable of winning immunity in a fair fight on any given day.
Instead, all three seem to think being in the final FOUR is better than being in the final three (and seem oblivious to the fact that all THREE of them have been promised a spot in the final four by Rob and Ambah. It's not higher math, kids!). And even if you get to the final three with Rob and Ambah ... what are your chances of winning an immunity challenge against Rob? Slim and fat, says I. Ergo, you go, 'cause Rob ain't gonna dump Ambah.
And hey ... I wonder if, after seven beer, Rupert could finally understand what Big Tom was saying?